The summer movie season is a magical time during which the film industry makes a large percentage of its annual turnover. To put it another way, consider it the film industry’s version of Christmas shopping. The biggest, glossiest, most expensive movies are on display, all waiting to become blockbusters. In previous years, it has become an overcrowded marketplace, with every major studio releasing their heavy-hitters. However, with fewer overall films, high-profile box-office flops, and sure-fire hits only doing so-so numbers, Summer 2024 struggled to get going.
The box office is a delicate ecosystem. So buckle in, grab some popcorn, and prepare for a manageable amount of statistics, box office data, and occasional film trivia. I’ll break down what’s gone wrong, why it happened, and what movie studios should do to bring audiences back to the big screen.
Off to a Rocky Start
Overall, 2024 has had the lowest start to the summer in almost 20 years, but worse yet, cinema attendance is still in decline. 2023 wasn’t free from misfires; even the summer of Barbienhiemer had box office flops. Disney had three expensive failures with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023), The Haunted Mansion (2023), and the animated film Wish (2023). However, the disastrous reception to The Marvels (2023) delivered Marvel Studios their first box office bomb.
These four movies generated an eye watering net loss of more than $620 million for Disney. The Mouse House wasn’t alone in reporting record losses that were sure to wipe out hard-won profits. Warner Bros’s DC Universe also came crashing down with Shazam Fury of the Gods (2023), Blue Beetle (2023), Aquaman 2 (2023), and the hot, soupy mess that was The Flash (2023).
On the positive side, movies like Bad Boys (2024), Inside Out 2 (2024), A Quiet Place: Day One (2024), and Despicable Me 4 (2024) helped wake the summer 2024 box office up. Twisters (2024) is off to a strong start; horror-thriller Longlegs (2024) is doing exceptionally well for a small film. Plus Deadpool and Wolverine (2024) will be breaking some records.
What You Need To Know About The Box Office
Before we start, it’s essential to understand the box office, how it works, and the cost of releasing a big summer movie. It may sound impressive when a film makes over $1 billion, but what a movie makes at the box office and what profit is left are very different numbers.
Much like the plot of Christopher Nolan’s aggressively complicated Tenet (2020), the movie box office can be challenging to understand. So, here’s some of the basics to remember.
- The loose rule of thumb is that a movie needs to make two or three times its budget at the box office to break even or start making a profit.
- Typically, the summer movie season starts the first weekend in May.
- The reported box office of any movie is the total amount in ticket sales before deductions.
There might be no business like it but show business is expensive, and there are plenty of hidden costs involved. Here’s a quick look at the most significant ones.
- On average, cinemas keep 50% of ticket sales.
- Marketing costs are separate from the production budget and vary from film to film. The bigger the production budget, the bigger the marketing.
- Due to a 2012 trade deal, all US movies released in China only keep 25% of the overall box office they make there.
- If a movie hits certain milestones, the studios will make profit share payments to the main cast, producers, and executives.
A Super Quick Example
Now you’re all caught up on some of the finer points of the complex box office machine; I’m going to demonstrate a quick example. Every year, the industry website Deadline does a brilliant series called The Top 10 Most Valuable Blockbusters.
In this fascinating series of articles, they break down the top 10 highest-grossing films of the year and drill down into the profit. Barbie (2023) was the biggest movie of 2023, making a massive $1.4 billion worldwide during its theatrical run. Remember, cinemas take up to 50%, and the total revenues are inclusive of all Home Entertainment sales.
- Total revenues just over $1 billion
- Production Budget $160 million
- Marketing $175 million
- Distribution Costs $64 million
- All participant payments of $175 million
- Interest $29 million
Deadline looks at the entire first cycle of profits. So, after making all the deductions outlined above, the studio’s net profit for Barbie was surprisingly just $421 million.
What Went Wrong At The Box Office
Of course, last year’s writers’ and actors’ strikes are the main factor in this blockbuster slump. For the first time since 1960, America’s writers and actors were on strike simultaneously, and the industry ground to a halt. Again. As a result, dozens of movies were delayed, and it became clear that summer 2024 would be light on releases. Here’s a small selection of some of the bigger movies that were initially due for release this summer.
- Marvel’s Captain America Brave New World
- Marvel’s Thunderbolts
- Mission Impossible 8
- Transformers One (Animated)
- Disney/Pixar’s Elio (Animated)
- Snow White (Live-Action Remake)
However, the thin-on-the-ground new releases only highlighted multiple pressure points within the film industry. As much as the studios might want to pretend these problems aren’t there and carry on regardless. The drop in cinema attendance is undeniably growing and significantly impacting the industry. So, let’s look at these four pressure points in more detail.
A Change in Viewing Habits
The pandemic has permanently altered movie-going habits, as audiences now expect newly released films to be available for home viewing quicker. Whether on paid video-on-demand (VOD) or the numerous streaming platforms, brand-new films are available daily everywhere.
Universal’s animated Trolls World Tour (2020) was the first premium VOD release during the lockdown, and other movie studios soon followed. Ultimately, audiences are spoilt for choice regarding what they can watch in the comfort of their homes. So making that cinema trip has to be worth it, and the quality of some recent movies has been mixed.
Streaming
In the streaming age, watching everything that might interest you is almost impossible. I’ve officially lost track of how many movies are just kind of hanging out together on the various watchlists. I tell myself I’m going to watch it, but deep down, I know I’m going to forget.
Only some streaming platforms see the value in releasing their movies in cinemas, albeit it’s a half-hearted effort. AppleTV+ is the most committed, with recent releases Killers of the Flower Moon (2023), Napoleon (2023), and Argyle (2024).
None were a runaway box office success, but these films don’t exist to make money traditionally. Their purpose for being made is explicitly for when you’re endlessly scrolling, trying to find something to watch. You’ll pause a moment and possibly say, “Hey, that thing I heard about is on here; I might watch that.”
After all, we live in a time where the success or failure of a streaming movie is difficult to gauge. Netflix’s Red Notice (2021) stars Dwayne Johnson, Ryan Reynolds; it cost $200 million, and it was Netflix’s most-watched film. Even if you watched that movie, are you struggling to remember it now?
Amazon is perhaps the worst offender. When it purchased the iconic film studio MGM (home of James Bond), they promised to reinvest in theatrical releases. However, Amazon (unsurprisingly) has just been putting movies out straight to streaming with the occasionally limited theatrical release. In short, for many audiences, the distinction between streaming and theatrical movies is unclear as they consume them similarly.
Short Theatrical Windows
When I was a youngling, the average time for a movie to go from cinema to VHS was 18 months. In the 90s, if you didn’t see that thing you wanted to see on the big screen, you might have to wait a year and a half. I saw the original Jurassic Park (1993) too many times at the cinema in the Summer of 1993, but the VHS didn’t hit shelves until October 1994.
Thirty years on, the gap from theatrical to home entertainment has been an ongoing argument between movie studios and cinema chains. Home Entertainment (Digital, DVD, Blu-ray) has become a massive part of a movie’s profitability potential, but studios are rushing to cash in quickly. Most current movies typically get at least 45 days in cinemas before someone presses that VOD button.
Another Super Quick Example
Starring the two co-stars from last year’s Barbienhiemer (Ryan Gosling & Emily Blunt) in an adaptation of that 80s TV show you’ve likely never seen. The Fall Guy (2024) has likeable stars, fun action rom-com vibes, and explosions; all the boxes ticked for a crowd-pleasing blockbuster. Except it wasn’t. The Fall Guy‘s domestic (US) opening was a disappointing $27.7 million; that’s terrible news for a movie with a $130-150 million budget.
After barely three weeks, an extended version of the film hit Digital, ending any chance of a sleeper hit. The odds of turning things around were non-existent, but Universal’s knee-jerk reaction left box office money on the table. Ultimately, where is the incentive for audiences to go to the cinema when they know it will soon be online?
It Costs How Much?
Thirty years ago, James Cameron’s action-thriller True Lies (1994) became the first movie to have a production budget of $100 million. The Arnold Schwarzenegger-led action thriller ushered in a new era of filmmaking excess. Today, movies with production budgets upwards of $200 million are the norm, and overall budgets are getting too high. As a result, it’s becoming challenging for these giant productions to make any money.
The Fall Guy wasn’t alone in having a budget that priced it out of being a hit. George Miller’s beautifully made Mad Max spin-off Furiosa (2024) looked spectacular on the big screen. Armed with a production budget of $168 million, Furiosa needed to generate north of $400 million to break even. It was always a wild, creative swing, but Furiosa could only muster $173 million. There is a place for massive filmmaking, but it needs to be proportionate to the potential audiences. For the most part, that seems logical, despite becoming increasingly difficult to know what audiences want.
What Hollywood Can Do
So far, Summer 2025 looks more promising, with many of this year’s delayed releases thoroughly filling up the schedule. However, Hollywood has plenty of lessons to learn, and here’s what I believe would help the long-term situation.
Reinvest In Originality
It is challenging to argue for originality when Summer 2024 has been unkind to original films. The John Krasinski-directed IF starred Ryan Reynolds; it is a family-friendly story with tons of heart, it flopped. Even the usually robust horror genre has struggled to have a breakout hit. That said, the majority of the success stories of the summer will all be sequels, reboots, and movies based on existing IP. Due to this, I fear Hollywood will double down by ramping up more franchises, as that’s what’s making the money.
Creating something original is harder than making another Superman or Batman or rebooting a franchise. It’s a shortcut to an instant fanbase and one that makes business sense. But as more original films flop, it sends the message that all we want is the same again. Take some modestly budgeted risks Hollywood.
Instant Franchises Are Often A False Economy
The Marvel Cinematic Universe redefined what a franchise could be with multiple movies in production simultaneously. When Warner Bros. tried that with their DC Universe, things didn’t pan out as well as expected.
Hollywood still needs to learn this lesson, as the first installment of Kevin Costner’s Western saga, Horizon (2024), crashed out. The partly self-funded passion project is already filming number three, and the release of Chapter 2 is on hold. Franchises need a solid foundation to build on if they’re going to get to their endgame. So, lining up multiple sequels before the first hits cinemas is risky, regardless of its genre.
Return To 90 Day Theatrical Windows
Longer theatrical release windows are essential and need to make a comeback. I know it might not be in keeping with our on-demand entertainment world, but hear me out. The UK is losing more screens; Cineworld will close at least 25 locations, including several Picturehouses. Sadly, this isn’t something restricted to the UK.
Going to the movies is expensive outside of a monthly cinema membership. However, for the price of one ticket and a glance at some heavily marked-up ‘food,’ you could rent or buy the movie to watch at home. Ninety days would go some way to safeguarding what it means to be a released movie and giving cinemas the exclusive. Also, remember that the sooner the Digital release date is, the sooner the film will be pirated.
Wrapping Up
I love all films. Cinema is about spectacle and smaller stories, perspectives from life you’d never usually see, and pure escapism. It can be all of those things, but Hollywood continues to refind its footing after multiple shutdowns, changes, and the rise of streaming. Studios have been overcorrecting, trying to reignite the box office, but hope is on the horizon — maybe not Kevin Costner’s Horizon.
Budgets need to be reigned in as much as marketing spends, too many movies are pricing themselves out of profits. Above all, studios need to give films the time they deserve in cinemas.
The summer won’t reach the highs of 2023, nor will it be a total washout. The successes prove that audiences will show up, but it’ll take more than sequels to fully fix the box office. Industry experts estimate returning to pre-pandemic cinema admissions will take at least another two years. So, with that in mind, why not look at your local cinema listings and go and see something if you can.